The White House just released a shocking Biden polling memo

Yes true.

Witness a voting memo released Thursday night by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jane O’Malley Dillon that takes issue with a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows Biden’s approval of the job at just 33%.

“This week’s Quinnipiac poll, like Quinnipiac’s poll of the past five months, is much more likely,” Dillon writes.

As evidence, she cites a FiveThirtyEight running poll average (out of all polls) that shows Biden with an average job approval score of 43%. She blames Biden’s low numbers in the Q poll on a higher-than-average percentage of people saying they “don’t know” in response to the question whether they approve or disapprove of the work Biden is doing. We do. This is partly possible because Quinnipiac still exclusively uses a method called RDD (random digit dialing, calling a phone number) to collect data, a method that has been abandoned by many major organizations.
Whatever it may be!

But, take a step back here. The Biden White House is fighting to ensure that nearly four in ten people approve of the work the president is doing — as opposed to one in three who approve. Even if we get Dylan to listen to him – and I think we should! Then Biden’s condition is bad politically.

Compare where Biden stands today to where his predecessors have been. Biden is on 43% approval in the latest Gallup Monthly poll. Under his presidency around this time, here were the last seven people to hold office:

Donald Trump: 37%

Barack Obama: 50%

George W. Bush: 86%

Bill Clinton: 54%

George HW Bush: 71%

Ronald Reagan: 49%

Jimmy Carter: 57%

(All of these numbers come courtesy of Gallup’s Presidential Job Approval Center, an invaluable resource.)

With the exception of Trump, Biden is in the worst shape of any of them. And, of course, Trump’s Republican Party lost 41 House seats and a majority in the 2018 midterm and Trump lost his bid for a second term two years later.

Which means that being in slightly better voting shape than Trump is nothing for Biden to brag about. A 43% job approval score, if it lasts all the way through November — and there is some evidence that this is not an exception, but rather Biden’s rule at this point — makes Democrats very likely to lose the House and no one else. No better than a 50-50 shot at maintaining his Senate majority.

So, why then, if you are the Biden White House, issue a memo that insists that the president has 43% approval? Well, that’s because 43% is a number that worries Democrats on the ballot in November, while 33% is a number that provokes outright panic.

(It’s worth noting that CNN’s latest poll, which includes the four most recent national polls on presidential job approval ratings, similarly put them at 42%.)

With Democratic retirement in the House fast and furious — and Biden attempting to push the Build Back Better Act and new voting rights legislation — the White House is in crisis mode, fighting against the idea that the presidency is sinking. And now it’s time to jump ship. ,
(Also worth noting: talk of Biden’s presidency torn apart is rampant these days; “Is Biden’s presidency doomed?” historian Julian Zelizer asked in a piece for CNN on Friday.)

So Dillon concludes that “the president and congressional Democrats will build on this progress in 2022, addressing price increases, easing supply chain bottlenecks, enacting bipartisan infrastructure legislation, and making additional progress to fight the virus.” ”

The shortened version of that pitch goes like this: Put it out there, it has to get better.

Joe, I get it! But man, you know you’re in a dark place politically when the victory is making people believe that the president is at 43%.


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