“This week’s Quinnipiac poll, like Quinnipiac’s poll of the past five months, is much more likely,” Dillon writes.
But, take a step back here. The Biden White House is fighting to ensure that nearly four in ten people approve of the work the president is doing — as opposed to one in three who approve. Even if we get Dylan to listen to him – and I think we should! Then Biden’s condition is bad politically.
Donald Trump: 37%
Barack Obama: 50%
George W. Bush: 86%
Bill Clinton: 54%
George HW Bush: 71%
Ronald Reagan: 49%
Jimmy Carter: 57%
With the exception of Trump, Biden is in the worst shape of any of them. And, of course, Trump’s Republican Party lost 41 House seats and a majority in the 2018 midterm and Trump lost his bid for a second term two years later.
Which means that being in slightly better voting shape than Trump is nothing for Biden to brag about. A 43% job approval score, if it lasts all the way through November — and there is some evidence that this is not an exception, but rather Biden’s rule at this point — makes Democrats very likely to lose the House and no one else. No better than a 50-50 shot at maintaining his Senate majority.
So, why then, if you are the Biden White House, issue a memo that insists that the president has 43% approval? Well, that’s because 43% is a number that worries Democrats on the ballot in November, while 33% is a number that provokes outright panic.
(It’s worth noting that CNN’s latest poll, which includes the four most recent national polls on presidential job approval ratings, similarly put them at 42%.)
So Dillon concludes that “the president and congressional Democrats will build on this progress in 2022, addressing price increases, easing supply chain bottlenecks, enacting bipartisan infrastructure legislation, and making additional progress to fight the virus.” ”
The shortened version of that pitch goes like this: Put it out there, it has to get better.
Joe, I get it! But man, you know you’re in a dark place politically when the victory is making people believe that the president is at 43%.
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